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Scroll down to view real estate and property-related articles which have appeared in the country’s foremost news media over the past month. You’ll also see commentary from Bayleys managing director Mike Bayley, along with financial research and analysis from highly influential ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie.

We’re now officially in spring – and just as the green shoots of vegetation are beginning to rise from the soil after a winter of hibernation, the country is waiting for stronger signals that New Zealand’s real estate market is beginning to emerge from its winter slumber.

Winter is traditionally a quieter season in the real estate calendar across all sectors, and this year the degree of sluggish activity over the period was exacerbated by the ongoing effects of recession recovery – with an added dose of household debt deleveraging, some significant finance company failures, and general corporate caution thrown in for good measure.

However, with the rise in temperatures, real estate agencies throughout New Zealand have reported a gently rising volume of listings and the number of buyer enquiries since mid August. I expect this lift will continue to develop throughout the remainder of the year as the Kiwi population, and its psyche, thaw out.

As it was in 2008, the level of inactivity seen in June and July this year was simply unsustainable, and a resulting swing upward to a higher level equilibrium is inevitable.

The rural sector - while close to the bottom of its cycle, if not there already - remains nervous, as mortgagee and receivership offerings continue to come onto the market… offering good buying opportunities for those with access to finance.

It remains to be seen as a result of the property fallout from the now defunct South Canterbury Finance. Land owners in the rural sector will be waiting with nervous anticipation as to how the receivers will deal with South Canterbury’s impaired loan book.

This theme of waiting for sharply priced properties to come to the rural market is being replicated across the residential and commercial and industrial sectors too… and there are now some great buying opportunities out there in the marketplace through mortgagee and receivership sales for those with funding streams.

With interest rates still at relatively low historic levels, deposit equity for many home buyers having been built up over the past 12-18months, and vendors becoming more realistic with price expectations, homes are becoming more attractive – as outlined by the article from interest.co.nz featured below.

The ‘supply’ side of the equation is however handbraking any great recovery to volume levels – a factor which is tending to skew statistics, as shown in the article by QV featured on the Bob Dey Property Report, below.

Interest in commercial property is recovering, and the constraints of ongoing tight lending conditions are easing. As with the other sectors, activity levels here will improve gradually as banks, like investors, increase their appetite for supporting this portion of the property market.

The general consensus I’m hearing from around our agency network, is that there is an air of subtle positivity around the country - that people are waiting for a spark to raise spirits in the final quarter. That ‘something’ spark may warmer weather. It may be the looming prospect of Christmas. It may be the injection of $1.6billion into the economy from South Canterbury investors receiving their deposits back….

Mike Bayley

Banks at odds over fixed v floating rates

Stuff.co.nz August 30 2010

Economists are divided as to whether mortgage holders on floating rates should start moving off now or hold off until the end of the year. [Click Here]

New buildings could affect commercial property values

Nbr.co.nz August 24 2010

Reduced market rental levels as new buildings are completed could affect property values in the commercial office sector, ING Property Trust says. [Click Here]

Roost Home Loan Affordability Report for July shows biggest improvement in 18 months

interest.co.nz August 19, 2010

New Zealand home loan affordability improved in July by its biggest amount in 18 months to its best levels since September last year as fixed mortgage rates dropped and house prices eased, the Roost Home Loan Affordability report shows. [Click Here]

Another signal dairy sector is on way back up

nbr.co.nz August 17, 2010

More proof the dairy industry is climbing out of the economic despair of two years ago has come in the form of a fresh survey.[Click Here]

Kiwi Income chief sees more cbd vacancy & lower rents

Bob Dey Property Report August 13, 2010

The chief executive of Kiwi Income Property Trust’s management company, Chris Gudgeon, told unitholders at their annual meeting in Wellington yesterday he expected vacancies in the Auckland & Wellington office markets to increase, with a consequent softening in rents, because of an increase in supply. [Click Here]

QV index shows slow slide in residential values

Bob Dey Property Report August 9, 2010

Quotable Value Ltd’s residential sales indexes for July show property values around the country have continued to decline. [Click Here]

Farmers with $250m in loans anxious about company's future

Herald.co.nz September 1 2010

South Canterbury Finance's collapse with hundreds of rural sector loans worth more than $250 million raises questions about the risk to the nation's agricultural engine room. [Click Here]

Home loan approvals at non-holiday low for 4th consecutive week
Interest.co.nz
Weekly housing loan approvals sank to another fresh non-holiday week low last week, according to Reserve Bank data. [Click here]

Economy showing signs that household sector hit debt saturation point in winter of 2010

interest.co.nz

In years to come New Zealanders will look back on the winter of 2010 as the moment when we finally realised the last 10 years of growth was a sham. [Click here]

Federated Farmers confidence survey

Interest.co.nz
In the latest Federated Farmers confidence survey, farmers reported they were more optimistic about making a profit, but less about the state of the economy. [Click here]

Amended Residential Tenancies Act passed

Bob Dey Property Report

The Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill received its third reading in Parliament on Tuesday and the new act should come into force from 1 October. [Click here]

Recovery stalling survey

Stuff.co.nz

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand should stop raising interest rates, amid worrying evidence that the economy recovery is stalling, says New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion chief economist Shamubeel Eaqub. [Click here]

Willis Bond draws $128 million to real estate fund
Bob Dey Property Report

Willis Bond & Co Ltd aimed for $100 million for a private equity real estate fund but closed it yesterday at $128 million.
The fund was established to capitalise on attractive development & investment opportunities in the New Zealand commercial real estate market. [Click here]

Bumper 09 season in the south

Interest.co.nz
With all the doom and gloom about the demise of the sheep and cattle industry, this report shows some farmers in that sector are making a profit. [Click here]
 
OIO review to probe land sales says PM

National Business Review
A review of the overseas investment regime is likely to look at how to stop the sell-off large tracts of land to foreign buyers, Prime Minister John Key indicated today. [Click here]
 
Country's biggest rural lender launches workshops on farming corporate governance
Interest.co.nz
The National Bank, the country's biggest rural lender, is launching a series of workshops aimed at improving farmers' business skills. [Click here]
 

To read ANZ bank's latest in-depth financial analysis of the state of New Zealand's property market, with commentary from chief economist Cameron Bagrie, [click here].

To view PropertyLIVE archives [click here]